Domestic bauxite prices remain at between 200-280 yuan / ton, the bauxite price of the port between 280-420 yuan / ton, which is due to the different quality of bauxite and transportation costs caused by differences. From a global perspective, the bauxite supply is more adequate, alternative potential is large, is expected to late bauxite price changes will not be great.
Looking at the present point of view: We believe that the future of alumina in the short term due to the rise in operating rate, make up the end of the inventory cycle, resulting in a certain degree of price down; but the long term, because the alumina industry capacity utilization is lower The average level of the world's domestic industry as a result of the overall decline in profits, to the production capacity policy to help solve the excess capacity of the alumina industry to improve the industry average profit level and enhance the competitiveness of the alumina industry; environmental protection will reduce production capacity of alumina enterprises, Supply will be subject to a certain pressure, late alumina or benefit from policy implementation to promote the price rise to a certain high.
According to statistics, if the implementation of environmental protection in the heating season policy will lead to the reduction of about 5 million tons of alumina; at the same time according to statistics, 2017 new capacity of 6 million tons, due to the majority of production capacity in the second half, so the expected alumina The new amount is 3 million tons. It is further assumed that the net imports of alumina are stabilized at 3 million tonnes and electrolytic aluminum production is maintained at 6.5% growth (the downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum remains stable, see the text). According to this projections 2017 alumina supply and demand gap reached 2.45 million tons.
To the production capacity of environmental protection and environmental protection policy will still affect the coal, alumina, roasting anode and electrolytic aluminum materials supply, this effect will also be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production, while superimposed electrolytic aluminum itself, the impact of environmental protection, electrolytic aluminum prices Will be in the future after a brief decline with the cost of rising back to a certain high.
According to consensus expectations: real estate development and construction to maintain a growth rate of about 5% year on year, power-related areas of investment growth rate of 3% growth rate, car production year on year to maintain 6% growth rate, assuming that the remaining downstream aluminum consumption applications remain unchanged Consider the new demand for aluminum in the field of new energy vehicles + rail transportation + lightweight, we believe that the consumption of aluminum can be maintained at about 6% growth rate. With the slowdown in China's economic growth, aluminum downstream demand into a more balanced state. The future we are more concerned about the new energy vehicles, rail transportation, lightweight to bring new growth of aluminum.
Looking at the present point of view: We believe that the future of alumina in the short term due to the rise in operating rate, make up the end of the inventory cycle, resulting in a certain degree of price down; but the long term, because the alumina industry capacity utilization is lower The average level of the world's domestic industry as a result of the overall decline in profits, to the production capacity policy to help solve the excess capacity of the alumina industry to improve the industry average profit level and enhance the competitiveness of the alumina industry; environmental protection will reduce production capacity of alumina enterprises, Supply will be subject to a certain pressure, late alumina or benefit from policy implementation to promote the price rise to a certain high.
According to statistics, if the implementation of environmental protection in the heating season policy will lead to the reduction of about 5 million tons of alumina; at the same time according to statistics, 2017 new capacity of 6 million tons, due to the majority of production capacity in the second half, so the expected alumina The new amount is 3 million tons. It is further assumed that the net imports of alumina are stabilized at 3 million tonnes and electrolytic aluminum production is maintained at 6.5% growth (the downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum remains stable, see the text). According to this projections 2017 alumina supply and demand gap reached 2.45 million tons.
To the production capacity of environmental protection and environmental protection policy will still affect the coal, alumina, roasting anode and electrolytic aluminum materials supply, this effect will also be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production, while superimposed electrolytic aluminum itself, the impact of environmental protection, electrolytic aluminum prices Will be in the future after a brief decline with the cost of rising back to a certain high.
According to consensus expectations: real estate development and construction to maintain a growth rate of about 5% year on year, power-related areas of investment growth rate of 3% growth rate, car production year on year to maintain 6% growth rate, assuming that the remaining downstream aluminum consumption applications remain unchanged Consider the new demand for aluminum in the field of new energy vehicles + rail transportation + lightweight, we believe that the consumption of aluminum can be maintained at about 6% growth rate. With the slowdown in China's economic growth, aluminum downstream demand into a more balanced state. The future we are more concerned about the new energy vehicles, rail transportation, lightweight to bring new growth of aluminum.